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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5980Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0020Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.5%10.0%20
10–20%16.3%11.7%179
20–30%25.3%27.3%626
30–40%34.7%32.5%246
40–50%44.8%41.2%194
50–60%54.6%56.8%132
60–70%63.7%71.4%63
70–80%74.0%77.8%27
80–90%84.4%50.0%4
90–100%--0

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 12 Oct 2026 · 15:22 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Oruro Always Ready
    Home22.17% Draw20.24% Away57.59%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Oruro Always Ready
    Home22.02% Draw20.29% Away57.70%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Oruro Always Ready
    Home22.23% Draw20.27% Away57.50%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Oruro Always Ready
    Home21.90% Draw20.19% Away57.92%
    2–2 Missed
  5. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Oruro Always Ready
    Home22.04% Draw20.19% Away57.78%
    2–2 Missed
  6. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Oruro Always Ready
    Home16.61% Draw18.55% Away64.83%
    2–2 Missed
  7. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Oruro Always Ready
    Home16.61% Draw18.55% Away64.84%
    2–2 Missed
  8. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Oruro Always Ready
    Home16.61% Draw18.55% Away64.84%
    2–2 Missed
  9. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Oruro Always Ready
    Home16.61% Draw18.55% Away64.84%
    2–2 Missed
  10. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Oruro Always Ready
    Home16.61% Draw18.55% Away64.84%
    2–2 Missed
  11. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Oruro Always Ready
    Home16.61% Draw18.55% Away64.84%
    2–2 Missed
  12. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Oruro Always Ready
    Home16.20% Draw17.49% Away66.31%
    2–2 Missed
  13. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Oruro Always Ready
    Home12.25% Draw34.13% Away53.62%
    2–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.