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Model discovery

Discover interesting matches

Explore upcoming matches, model probabilities and recent team trends. Find something worth investigating without searching fixture by fixture.

Interesting today

8

Distinct signals from saved forecasts and completed results. Only fixtures with qualifying evidence appear; each reason is shown at most twice.

Contrasting signals
Eredivisie
Cambuur PSV Eindhoven
Home 14.95% Draw 16.89% Away 68.16%

Why this is interesting: Scoring trends point in opposite directions in Eredivisie. Cambuur scored 14 goals in its latest five full-time matches versus 9 in the previous five; PSV Eindhoven scored 13 versus 20. Each change is supported by at least three recent matches.

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High confidence
Primera División Femenina
Barcelona W Madrid CFF W
Home 99.22% Draw 0.69% Away 0.10%

Why this is interesting: The saved forecast assigns 99.22% to the Home outcome, meeting the 70% discovery threshold. High probability is not certainty.

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Defence declining
Prva Liga
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV Metalac GM
Home 56.95% Draw 24.45% Away 18.60%

Why this is interesting: Metalac GM conceded 13 goals in its latest five full-time matches in Prva Liga, compared with 1 in the previous five. At least three recent matches support the direction of this change.

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Attack declining
Eredivisie
AZ Alkmaar Groningen
Home 61.85% Draw 19.65% Away 18.50%

Why this is interesting: AZ Alkmaar scored 3 goals in its latest five full-time matches in Eredivisie, compared with 15 in the previous five. At least three recent matches support the direction of this change.

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Form improving
Super League
Servette FC FC Zurich
Home 55.43% Draw 22.13% Away 22.44%

Why this is interesting: FC Zurich earned 13 points in its latest five full-time matches in Super League, compared with 4 in the previous five (three points per win, one per draw).

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Balanced
Iraqi League
Al Shorta Naft
Home 33.49% Draw 30.77% Away 35.74%

Why this is interesting: Only 5 percentage points separate the highest and lowest of all three outcome probabilities.

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Contrasting signals
Super League
FC Thun FC Basel 1893
Home 45.03% Draw 22.56% Away 32.41%

Why this is interesting: Scoring trends point in opposite directions in Super League. FC Thun scored 13 goals in its latest five full-time matches versus 8 in the previous five; FC Basel 1893 scored 6 versus 11. Each change is supported by at least three recent matches.

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Attack improving
Elite One
Canon Aigle Royal
Home 46.14% Draw 26.76% Away 27.10%

Why this is interesting: Aigle Royal scored 12 goals in its latest five full-time matches in Elite One, compared with 2 in the previous five. At least three recent matches support the direction of this change.

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Interesting next week

8

Signals worth exploring for next Monday–Sunday (9 Nov–15 Nov), in your timezone. Evidence reflects results and forecasts available now.

Contrasting signals
Primera División Femenina
Atletico Madrid W FC Levante Badalona W
Home 79.61% Draw 13.77% Away 6.62%

Why this is interesting: Scoring trends point in opposite directions in Primera División Femenina. Atletico Madrid W scored 13 goals in its latest five full-time matches versus 6 in the previous five; FC Levante Badalona W scored 3 versus 7. Each change is supported by at least three recent matches.

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Form declining
Azadegan League
Saipa Havadar
Home 48.90% Draw 32.18% Away 18.92%

Why this is interesting: Saipa earned 2 points in its latest five full-time matches in Azadegan League, compared with 15 in the previous five (three points per win, one per draw).

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Attack declining
Premier League
Central Stallions Hunters
Home 76.54% Draw 11.88% Away 11.59%

Why this is interesting: Central Stallions scored 12 goals in its latest five full-time matches in Premier League, compared with 25 in the previous five. At least three recent matches support the direction of this change.

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Defence improving
Non League Premier - Northern
Redcar Athletic Bamber Bridge
Home 78.66% Draw 14.14% Away 7.19%

Why this is interesting: Bamber Bridge conceded 6 goals in its latest five full-time matches in Non League Premier - Northern, compared with 16 in the previous five. At least three recent matches support the direction of this change.

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High confidence
UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification
France U17 Armenia U17
Home 95.40% Draw 3.88% Away 0.72%

Why this is interesting: The saved forecast assigns 95.40% to the Home outcome, meeting the 70% discovery threshold. High probability is not certainty.

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Balanced
Azadegan League
Novin Ahvaz Ario Eslamshahr
Home 32.63% Draw 32.66% Away 34.71%

Why this is interesting: Only 2.1 percentage points separate the highest and lowest of all three outcome probabilities.

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Contrasting signals
Pro League A
Metalourg Aral
Home 40.83% Draw 27.01% Away 32.16%

Why this is interesting: Scoring trends point in opposite directions in Pro League A. Metalourg scored 6 goals in its latest five full-time matches versus 14 in the previous five; Aral scored 11 versus 7. Each change is supported by at least three recent matches.

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Attack declining
National League - North
Morecambe Hereford
Home 47.62% Draw 25.00% Away 27.38%

Why this is interesting: Hereford scored 3 goals in its latest five full-time matches in National League - North, compared with 13 in the previous five. At least three recent matches support the direction of this change.

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Highest model probabilities

6

Matches where one 1X2 outcome currently has the highest model probability in the available set. High probability is not certainty.

Balanced matches

6

The model sees little separation between the three main outcomes. Balanced means the highest and lowest probabilities are within eight percentage points.

Trending teams

4

Changes across the latest five full-time matches versus the previous five in the same competition, within 180 days. Goals and results are descriptive signals, not measures of underlying performance.