How our football predictions work

The data

Every prediction starts from match data covering hundreds of competitions: results, goals, shots, corners, cards, lineups, injuries, referee history, venue records and head-to-head history. We keep the full history rather than a rolling window, so a model can be tested against seasons it has never seen.

The model

A set of analysers each score one dimension of a fixture: recent form, home advantage, temporal patterns, referee tendencies, injury impact and expected goals. Their outputs are combined and calibrated into probabilities for each market. Calibration matters as much as the model itself. A 60 percent probability should be right about 60 percent of the time, and we measure whether it is.

What confidence means

Every prediction carries a confidence score. It states how far the evidence separates one outcome from the others. Across 159,902 graded predictions, high-confidence picks land 63.8 percent of the time on a sample of 2,803. Low-confidence picks perform close to chance. We publish both figures.

How we grade ourselves

When a match finishes, every market we predicted is compared against the real result and recorded permanently. Nothing is fitted after the fact and nothing is quietly dropped. That is why the headline number here is lower than figures advertised elsewhere. It covers every fixture in every competition, including the ones we got wrong.

What this is not

This is a statistical model, not a guarantee. Our overall figure sits above the 43.9 percent you would get by always backing the home side, which is the bar any honest model should clear. Football remains uncertain and no model changes that. We would rather show the real record than a better-looking one.