← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

495graded matches

0.5561Multiclass Brier (0–2)

0.9410Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 5 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table

Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability band	Mean predicted	Observed frequency	Outcome observations
0–10%	6.4%	5.5%	55
10–20%	15.8%	12.8%	226
20–30%	24.8%	24.1%	551
30–40%	34.9%	32.1%	221
40–50%	45.0%	49.4%	176
50–60%	54.6%	56.3%	112
60–70%	64.2%	70.0%	80
70–80%	75.0%	83.7%	43
80–90%	84.4%	75.0%	16
90–100%	94.8%	100.0%	5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (495)

Updated 11 Nov 2026 · 12:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Published forecasts

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.