← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

The evidence

Latest published forecasts

All timestamps in UTC

Pre-match record#20339

Nõmme Kalju IIVSNõmme United II

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 03:00
Kickoff: 21 Sep 2026 · 14:30

Pre-match record#20338

OFIVSAsteras Tripolis

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 02:00
Kickoff: 20 Sep 2026 · 16:00

Pre-match record#20337

The StrongestVSUniversitario de Vinto

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:30

Pre-match record#20336

Sarasota ParadiseVSCharlotte Independence

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:30

Pre-match record#20335

Fort WayneVSForward Madison

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:30

Pre-match record#20334

Tampa Bay RowdiesVSMiami FC

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:30

Pre-match record#20333

Independiente de La ChorreraVSCD Arabe Unido

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:15

Pre-match record#20332

Inter Playa del CarmenVSDeportiva Venados

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:00

Pre-match record#20331

Querétaro WVSAtlético San Luis W

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:00

Pre-match record#20330

Isidro MetapánVSAtletico Balboa

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:00

Pre-match record#20329

Real CartagenaVSPopayan

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:00

Pre-match record#20328

Westchester SCVSAlta

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:00

Pre-match record#20327

NaplesVSNY Cosmos

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:00

Pre-match record#20326

LexingtonVSEl Paso Locomotive

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:00

Pre-match record#20325

Detroit CityVSBirmingham Legion

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:00

Pre-match record#20324

BrooklynVSRhode Island

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 23:00

Pre-match record#20323

Eastern SuburbsVSAuckland City

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 22:30

Pre-match record#20322

PaysanduVSFerroviária

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 22:30

Pre-match record#20321

Inter De LimeiraVSBrusque

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 22:30

Pre-match record#20320

Kansas City WVSBay FC

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 22:30

Pre-match record#20319

FC TulsaVSSacramento Republic

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 04 Oct 2026 · 00:00

Pre-match record#20318

Argentinos JRSVSTigre

Published: 20 Sep 2026 · 00:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 22:15

Pre-match record#20317

TapachulaVSChapulineros

Published: 19 Sep 2026 · 22:01
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 22:00

Pre-match record#20316

Artesanos MetepecVSCañoneros Marina

Published: 19 Sep 2026 · 22:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 22:00

Pre-match record#20315

Internacional LagunaVSCelaya 2

Published: 19 Sep 2026 · 22:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 22:00

Pre-match record#20314

Gorilas de JuanacatlanVSHeroes de Zaci 2

Published: 19 Sep 2026 · 22:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 22:00

Pre-match record#20313

Dren VrhnikaVSKrško

Published: 19 Sep 2026 · 22:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 22:00

Pre-match record#20312

TriglavVSJesenice

Published: 19 Sep 2026 · 22:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 22:00

Pre-match record#20311

KrkaVSTabor Sežana

Published: 19 Sep 2026 · 22:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 22:00

Pre-match record#20310

BistricaVSRudar

Published: 19 Sep 2026 · 22:00
Kickoff: 03 Oct 2026 · 22:00

Public calibration — frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

488graded matches

0.6338Multiclass Brier (0–2)

1.1172Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 12 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability band	Mean predicted	Observed frequency	Outcome observations
0–10%	6.4%	14.3%	21
10–20%	16.0%	16.5%	85
20–30%	26.6%	26.6%	384
30–40%	34.2%	33.1%	694
40–50%	43.7%	45.6%	204
50–60%	54.0%	58.3%	48
60–70%	63.7%	69.6%	23
70–80%	73.6%	40.0%	5
80–90%	—	—	0
90–100%	—	—	0

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: ML_composition_v8:Advanced_joint_form_v73 (432) · ML_composition_v8:Fallback_regulation_v3 (53) · php_candidate_20260919_v1:advanced (3)

Updated 20 Sep 2026 · 04:10 UTC · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.