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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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478graded matches
0.5607Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9496Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 22 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%9.3%75
10–20%16.4%13.4%186
20–30%24.8%22.4%535
30–40%34.3%35.3%215
40–50%44.8%47.8%182
50–60%54.7%60.7%112
60–70%64.3%66.7%66
70–80%75.8%84.8%33
80–90%82.9%58.8%17
90–100%94.2%100.0%13

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (478)

Updated 22 Oct 2026 · 14:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home36.12% Draw23.54% Away40.34%
    1–0 Missed
  2. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home36.11% Draw23.54% Away40.35%
    1–0 Missed
  3. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home36.11% Draw23.54% Away40.35%
    1–0 Missed
  4. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home36.11% Draw23.54% Away40.35%
    1–0 Missed
  5. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home36.01% Draw23.29% Away40.70%
    1–0 Missed
  6. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home36.22% Draw23.29% Away40.49%
    1–0 Missed
  7. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home35.92% Draw23.98% Away40.10%
    1–0 Missed
  8. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home35.92% Draw23.98% Away40.10%
    1–0 Missed
  9. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home35.92% Draw23.98% Away40.10%
    1–0 Missed
  10. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home35.82% Draw22.72% Away41.46%
    1–0 Missed
  11. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home29.87% Draw35.55% Away34.58%
    1–0 Missed
  12. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home30.33% Draw35.32% Away34.35%
    1–0 Missed
  13. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home30.33% Draw35.32% Away34.35%
    1–0 Missed
  14. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home18.69% Draw41.10% Away40.21%
    1–0 Missed
  15. Published Regionalliga - South · Austria
    Wolfsberg Bleiburg
    Home18.69% Draw41.10% Away40.21%
    1–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.