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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5577Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9464Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%7.5%67
10–20%15.9%10.3%224
20–30%24.6%25.6%543
30–40%34.7%33.6%220
40–50%44.7%46.8%158
50–60%54.5%52.4%126
60–70%64.6%73.7%76
70–80%74.9%76.5%51
80–90%84.1%89.5%19
90–100%94.5%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 01:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home45.02% Draw25.61% Away29.37%
    1–2 Missed
  2. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home43.05% Draw25.97% Away30.99%
    1–2 Missed
  3. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home52.01% Draw25.37% Away22.62%
    1–2 Missed
  4. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home52.01% Draw25.37% Away22.62%
    1–2 Missed
  5. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home52.01% Draw25.37% Away22.62%
    1–2 Missed
  6. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home52.35% Draw25.21% Away22.44%
    1–2 Missed
  7. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home50.95% Draw25.48% Away23.57%
    1–2 Missed
  8. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home48.11% Draw28.67% Away23.22%
    1–2 Missed
  9. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home48.11% Draw28.67% Away23.22%
    1–2 Missed
  10. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home48.11% Draw28.67% Away23.22%
    1–2 Missed
  11. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home48.88% Draw20.10% Away31.03%
    1–2 Missed
  12. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home48.88% Draw20.10% Away31.03%
    1–2 Missed
  13. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home48.88% Draw20.10% Away31.03%
    1–2 Missed
  14. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home48.63% Draw20.10% Away31.27%
    1–2 Missed
  15. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home37.52% Draw33.20% Away29.27%
    1–2 Missed
  16. Published III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
    Wiślanie Jaśkowice Wisłoka Dębica
    Home37.52% Draw33.20% Away29.27%
    1–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.