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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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489graded matches
0.5645Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9524Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 11 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.0%2.0%51
10–20%16.0%15.6%160
20–30%25.5%22.1%584
30–40%34.2%36.4%264
40–50%45.0%46.4%196
50–60%54.5%62.5%112
60–70%64.5%67.3%49
70–80%73.8%81.8%33
80–90%85.2%90.9%11
90–100%93.9%100.0%7

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (487) · Earlier models (2)

Updated 29 Sep 2026 · 16:27 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Campionato Primavera - 1 · Italy
    Como U20 Bologna U20
    Home39.82% Draw40.78% Away19.40%
    1–2 Missed
  2. Campionato Primavera - 1 · Italy
    Como U20 Bologna U20
    Home35.44% Draw36.40% Away28.16%
    1–2 Missed
  3. Campionato Primavera - 1 · Italy
    Como U20 Bologna U20
    Home35.44% Draw36.40% Away28.16%
    1–2 Missed
  4. Campionato Primavera - 1 · Italy
    Como U20 Bologna U20
    Home35.44% Draw36.40% Away28.16%
    1–2 Missed
  5. Campionato Primavera - 1 · Italy
    Como U20 Bologna U20
    Home35.44% Draw36.40% Away28.16%
    1–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.