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Frozen pre-match forecast · #3023

Como U20 VS Bologna U20

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
16 Sep 2026 · 05:40 UTC
Match kickoff
20 Sep 2026 · 09:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
35.44%
Draw
36.40%
Away
28.16%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

1 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.7742
Log loss
1.2673

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
legacy
Captured at
16 Sep 2026 · 05:40 UTC
SHA-256
8e2277c8673deec0297e89dfa060a601aea0848ac958c8548d6e8db2a67a0c7e

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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