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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.5914Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9946Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.2%8.6%35
10–20%15.9%13.2%197
20–30%25.2%25.3%592
30–40%34.6%34.1%232
40–50%44.9%48.9%176
50–60%54.9%58.1%129
60–70%64.9%54.2%72
70–80%73.6%81.5%27
80–90%83.1%85.7%7
90–100%92.9%83.3%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 12:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home88.14% Draw8.85% Away3.02%
    4–2 Correct pick
  2. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home83.52% Draw11.52% Away4.96%
    4–2 Correct pick
  3. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home83.52% Draw11.52% Away4.96%
    4–2 Correct pick
  4. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home86.57% Draw10.43% Away3.00%
    4–2 Correct pick
  5. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home86.58% Draw10.42% Away3.00%
    4–2 Correct pick
  6. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home86.58% Draw10.42% Away3.00%
    4–2 Correct pick
  7. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home82.86% Draw12.81% Away4.33%
    4–2 Correct pick
  8. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home82.91% Draw12.76% Away4.32%
    4–2 Correct pick
  9. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home82.91% Draw12.76% Away4.32%
    4–2 Correct pick
  10. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home82.91% Draw12.76% Away4.32%
    4–2 Correct pick
  11. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home81.78% Draw13.37% Away4.85%
    4–2 Correct pick
  12. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home81.78% Draw13.37% Away4.85%
    4–2 Correct pick
  13. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home80.19% Draw14.69% Away5.12%
    4–2 Correct pick
  14. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home80.19% Draw14.69% Away5.12%
    4–2 Correct pick
  15. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home80.19% Draw14.69% Away5.12%
    4–2 Correct pick
  16. Published UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · World
    Greece U21 Latvia U21
    Home55.26% Draw27.39% Away17.35%
    4–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.