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Frozen pre-match forecast · #46737

Greece U21 VS Latvia U21

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
23 Sep 2026 · 07:51 UTC
Match kickoff
01 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
81.78%
Draw
13.37%
Away
4.85%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

4 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.0534
Log loss
0.2011

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v3
Captured at
23 Sep 2026 · 07:51 UTC
SHA-256
ea47e5d34f2f153c61a15f74fcd7008a951f7e5e14d4e7b23bec2aa00abc892c

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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