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Frozen pre-match forecast · #66466

Greece U21 VS Latvia U21

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
25 Sep 2026 · 05:00 UTC
Match kickoff
01 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
82.91%
Draw
12.76%
Away
4.32%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

4 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.0473
Log loss
0.1873

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
25 Sep 2026 · 05:00 UTC
SHA-256
4bb305c85aec9110e0b13a733c3a02c438ddac86ef7a7a8a0af4ce1191bfad21

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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