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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5579Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9479Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.4%6.2%65
10–20%16.0%11.6%216
20–30%24.5%25.3%541
30–40%34.8%32.1%237
40–50%44.7%45.0%169
50–60%54.7%57.3%124
60–70%64.5%75.0%68
70–80%75.0%78.7%47
80–90%84.2%84.2%19
90–100%94.3%80.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 08:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Ligat Ha'al · Israel
    Hapoel Haifa Hapoel Ramat Gan
    Home54.04% Draw22.76% Away23.19%
    0–2 Missed
  2. Published Ligat Ha'al · Israel
    Hapoel Haifa Hapoel Ramat Gan
    Home53.92% Draw22.84% Away23.24%
    0–2 Missed
  3. Published Ligat Ha'al · Israel
    Hapoel Haifa Hapoel Ramat Gan
    Home57.04% Draw22.11% Away20.85%
    0–2 Missed
  4. Published Ligat Ha'al · Israel
    Hapoel Haifa Hapoel Ramat Gan
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  5. Published Ligat Ha'al · Israel
    Hapoel Haifa Hapoel Ramat Gan
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  6. Published Ligat Ha'al · Israel
    Hapoel Haifa Hapoel Ramat Gan
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.