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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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498graded matches
0.6045Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0095Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 2 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.1%5.1%39
10–20%16.2%15.0%206
20–30%25.1%29.3%569
30–40%34.5%29.9%254
40–50%44.3%43.5%184
50–60%54.8%48.3%120
60–70%64.1%59.2%76
70–80%74.7%82.4%34
80–90%84.9%90.9%11
90–100%91.6%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (498)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 19:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 2. liga · Slovakia
    Inter Bratislava Šamorín
    Home40.14% Draw25.10% Away34.76%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published 2. liga · Slovakia
    Inter Bratislava Šamorín
    Home40.11% Draw25.07% Away34.82%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published 2. liga · Slovakia
    Inter Bratislava Šamorín
    Home40.11% Draw25.07% Away34.82%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published 2. liga · Slovakia
    Inter Bratislava Šamorín
    Home53.43% Draw23.40% Away23.17%
    2–2 Missed
  5. Published 2. liga · Slovakia
    Inter Bratislava Šamorín
    Home54.17% Draw23.30% Away22.53%
    2–2 Missed
  6. Published 2. liga · Slovakia
    Inter Bratislava Šamorín
    Home50.25% Draw24.55% Away25.20%
    2–2 Missed
  7. Published 2. liga · Slovakia
    Inter Bratislava Šamorín
    Home48.79% Draw24.91% Away26.31%
    2–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.