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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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499graded matches
0.6194Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0291Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 1 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.9%3.1%32
10–20%15.8%17.4%172
20–30%25.2%28.8%614
30–40%34.5%30.3%254
40–50%44.5%42.9%205
50–60%54.6%51.7%116
60–70%64.9%54.1%61
70–80%73.9%71.9%32
80–90%86.1%90.0%10
90–100%91.1%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (499)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 12:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Tvååker
    Home48.73% Draw23.95% Away27.32%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Tvååker
    Home48.50% Draw23.94% Away27.57%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Tvååker
    Home51.15% Draw23.01% Away25.85%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Tvååker
    Home52.45% Draw22.77% Away24.79%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Tvååker
    Home43.54% Draw23.73% Away32.73%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Tvååker
    Home43.54% Draw23.73% Away32.73%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Ettan - Södra · Sweden
    Laholm Tvååker
    Home37.87% Draw24.70% Away37.43%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.