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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5953Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9938Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%4.3%46
10–20%16.3%13.2%182
20–30%25.0%27.0%582
30–40%34.7%35.5%256
40–50%44.5%42.6%188
50–60%54.8%54.0%124
60–70%64.7%60.6%66
70–80%75.1%81.5%27
80–90%83.6%69.2%13
90–100%93.2%100.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (495) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 17:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published League Cup · Egypt
    Zamalek SC Masr
    Home13.96% Draw21.11% Away64.93%
    0–3 Correct pick
  2. Published League Cup · Egypt
    Zamalek SC Masr
    Home15.13% Draw22.05% Away62.82%
    0–3 Correct pick
  3. Published League Cup · Egypt
    Zamalek SC Masr
    Home47.01% Draw28.22% Away24.77%
    0–3 Missed
  4. Published League Cup · Egypt
    Zamalek SC Masr
    Home47.01% Draw28.22% Away24.77%
    0–3 Missed
  5. Published League Cup · Egypt
    Zamalek SC Masr
    Home47.01% Draw28.22% Away24.77%
    0–3 Missed
  6. Published League Cup · Egypt
    Zamalek SC Masr
    Home47.01% Draw28.22% Away24.77%
    0–3 Missed
  7. Published League Cup · Egypt
    Zamalek SC Masr
    Home47.01% Draw28.22% Away24.77%
    0–3 Missed
  8. Published League Cup · Egypt
    Zamalek SC Masr
    Home47.01% Draw28.22% Away24.77%
    0–3 Missed
  9. Published League Cup · Egypt
    Zamalek SC Masr
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.