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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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493graded matches
0.5311Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9044Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.3%5.2%77
10–20%16.0%11.3%222
20–30%24.9%23.6%543
30–40%34.6%31.0%197
40–50%44.9%50.3%179
50–60%54.5%58.3%115
60–70%64.6%76.5%68
70–80%74.9%81.3%48
80–90%83.9%85.0%20
90–100%94.1%100.0%10

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 16 Oct 2026 · 06:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Wycombe Bristol Rovers
    Home52.05% Draw22.81% Away25.14%
    4–1 Correct pick
  2. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Wycombe Bristol Rovers
    Home50.15% Draw23.15% Away26.70%
    4–1 Correct pick
  3. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Wycombe Bristol Rovers
    Home58.35% Draw19.88% Away21.77%
    4–1 Correct pick
  4. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Wycombe Bristol Rovers
    Home58.27% Draw20.00% Away21.73%
    4–1 Correct pick
  5. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Wycombe Bristol Rovers
    Home58.27% Draw20.00% Away21.73%
    4–1 Correct pick
  6. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Wycombe Bristol Rovers
    Home58.26% Draw20.00% Away21.73%
    4–1 Correct pick
  7. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Wycombe Bristol Rovers
    Home58.31% Draw19.97% Away21.73%
    4–1 Correct pick
  8. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Wycombe Bristol Rovers
    Home60.17% Draw19.34% Away20.49%
    4–1 Correct pick
  9. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Wycombe Bristol Rovers
    Home60.17% Draw19.34% Away20.49%
    4–1 Correct pick
  10. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Wycombe Bristol Rovers
    Home61.20% Draw19.06% Away19.74%
    4–1 Correct pick
  11. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Wycombe Bristol Rovers
    Home61.20% Draw19.06% Away19.74%
    4–1 Correct pick
  12. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Wycombe Bristol Rovers
    Home62.91% Draw17.78% Away19.31%
    4–1 Correct pick
  13. Published EFL Trophy · England
    Wycombe Bristol Rovers
    Home55.96% Draw17.55% Away26.49%
    4–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.