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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5894Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9918Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%8.3%36
10–20%15.9%12.3%195
20–30%25.2%25.7%592
30–40%34.6%33.0%230
40–50%44.9%49.7%177
50–60%54.9%56.9%130
60–70%64.9%56.5%69
70–80%73.5%81.5%27
80–90%83.8%87.5%8
90–100%92.9%83.3%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 12:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home42.47% Draw23.93% Away33.60%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home42.47% Draw23.93% Away33.60%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home45.38% Draw22.76% Away31.85%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home45.38% Draw22.77% Away31.85%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home45.38% Draw22.77% Away31.85%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home49.34% Draw22.43% Away28.23%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home49.34% Draw22.43% Away28.23%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home49.34% Draw22.43% Away28.23%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home47.00% Draw22.91% Away30.09%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home47.00% Draw22.91% Away30.09%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home48.95% Draw22.50% Away28.55%
    1–1 Missed
  12. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home47.04% Draw23.01% Away29.95%
    1–1 Missed
  13. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home46.66% Draw23.53% Away29.81%
    1–1 Missed
  14. Published Toppserien · Norway
    Vålerenga W Rosenborg W
    Home38.67% Draw18.87% Away42.46%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.