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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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482graded matches
0.5615Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9511Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 18 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.5%7.6%79
10–20%16.3%15.7%197
20–30%24.7%23.5%528
30–40%34.3%32.2%211
40–50%44.8%46.4%181
50–60%55.0%59.7%119
60–70%64.4%66.7%66
70–80%75.8%87.1%31
80–90%83.8%65.0%20
90–100%95.0%100.0%14

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (482)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 21:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 3. SNL - West · Slovenia
    Vipava Litija
    Home24.12% Draw21.84% Away54.05%
    0–4 Correct pick
  2. Published 3. SNL - West · Slovenia
    Vipava Litija
    Home23.87% Draw21.83% Away54.31%
    0–4 Correct pick
  3. Published 3. SNL - West · Slovenia
    Vipava Litija
    Home23.87% Draw21.83% Away54.31%
    0–4 Correct pick
  4. Published 3. SNL - West · Slovenia
    Vipava Litija
    Home23.87% Draw21.83% Away54.30%
    0–4 Correct pick
  5. Published 3. SNL - West · Slovenia
    Vipava Litija
    Home23.87% Draw21.83% Away54.30%
    0–4 Correct pick
  6. Published 3. SNL - West · Slovenia
    Vipava Litija
    Home23.87% Draw21.83% Away54.30%
    0–4 Correct pick
  7. Published 3. SNL - West · Slovenia
    Vipava Litija
    Home23.87% Draw21.82% Away54.31%
    0–4 Correct pick
  8. Published 3. SNL - West · Slovenia
    Vipava Litija
    Home25.54% Draw22.60% Away51.86%
    0–4 Correct pick
  9. Published 3. SNL - West · Slovenia
    Vipava Litija
    Home25.54% Draw22.60% Away51.86%
    0–4 Correct pick
  10. Published 3. SNL - West · Slovenia
    Vipava Litija
    Home22.20% Draw21.83% Away55.97%
    0–4 Correct pick
  11. Published 3. SNL - West · Slovenia
    Vipava Litija
    Home23.46% Draw22.15% Away54.39%
    0–4 Correct pick
  12. Published 3. SNL - West · Slovenia
    Vipava Litija
    Home23.34% Draw21.66% Away55.01%
    0–4 Correct pick
  13. Published 3. SNL - West · Slovenia
    Vipava Litija
    Home28.26% Draw20.78% Away50.96%
    0–4 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.