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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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486graded matches
0.5458Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9279Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 14 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%7.3%82
10–20%16.0%14.3%203
20–30%24.8%22.3%533
30–40%34.4%31.1%206
40–50%44.7%51.7%180
50–60%54.6%56.0%109
60–70%64.3%74.6%67
70–80%74.4%80.4%46
80–90%84.9%77.8%18
90–100%93.9%92.9%14

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (486)

Updated 14 Oct 2026 · 16:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Olympic Charleroi Meux
    Home51.46% Draw24.09% Away24.45%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Olympic Charleroi Meux
    Home52.08% Draw23.91% Away24.02%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Olympic Charleroi Meux
    Home45.41% Draw24.08% Away30.52%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Olympic Charleroi Meux
    Home45.73% Draw24.43% Away29.83%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Olympic Charleroi Meux
    Home45.73% Draw24.43% Away29.83%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Olympic Charleroi Meux
    Home45.73% Draw24.43% Away29.84%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Olympic Charleroi Meux
    Home45.75% Draw24.44% Away29.81%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Olympic Charleroi Meux
    Home46.92% Draw24.21% Away28.87%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Olympic Charleroi Meux
    Home46.92% Draw24.21% Away28.87%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Olympic Charleroi Meux
    Home46.09% Draw24.22% Away29.69%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Olympic Charleroi Meux
    Home45.32% Draw24.30% Away30.38%
    1–1 Missed
  12. Published First Amateur Division · Belgium
    Olympic Charleroi Meux
    Home44.67% Draw25.20% Away30.13%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.