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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5504Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9333Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.8%5.8%69
10–20%16.0%11.1%199
20–30%25.0%25.0%569
30–40%34.7%36.6%213
40–50%44.9%40.9%171
50–60%54.9%55.9%118
60–70%64.4%75.3%77
70–80%74.7%83.3%30
80–90%85.4%85.0%20
90–100%93.9%100.0%10

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 08 Oct 2026 · 19:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Persha Liga · Ukraine
    Prykarpattia Metal Kharkiv
    Home46.20% Draw28.46% Away25.33%
    0–0 Missed
  2. Published Persha Liga · Ukraine
    Prykarpattia Metal Kharkiv
    Home46.13% Draw28.52% Away25.35%
    0–0 Missed
  3. Published Persha Liga · Ukraine
    Prykarpattia Metal Kharkiv
    Home46.13% Draw28.52% Away25.35%
    0–0 Missed
  4. Published Persha Liga · Ukraine
    Prykarpattia Metal Kharkiv
    Home46.13% Draw28.52% Away25.35%
    0–0 Missed
  5. Published Persha Liga · Ukraine
    Prykarpattia Metal Kharkiv
    Home46.14% Draw28.51% Away25.35%
    0–0 Missed
  6. Published Persha Liga · Ukraine
    Prykarpattia Metal Kharkiv
    Home46.39% Draw28.46% Away25.15%
    0–0 Missed
  7. Published Persha Liga · Ukraine
    Prykarpattia Metal Kharkiv
    Home48.33% Draw28.05% Away23.63%
    0–0 Missed
  8. Published Persha Liga · Ukraine
    Prykarpattia Metal Kharkiv
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  9. Published Persha Liga · Ukraine
    Prykarpattia Metal Kharkiv
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  10. Published Persha Liga · Ukraine
    Prykarpattia Metal Kharkiv
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  11. Published Persha Liga · Ukraine
    Prykarpattia Metal Kharkiv
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  12. Published Persha Liga · Ukraine
    Prykarpattia Metal Kharkiv
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  13. Published Persha Liga · Ukraine
    Prykarpattia Metal Kharkiv
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.