The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

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Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

496graded matches

0.5714Multiclass Brier (0–2)

0.9624Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table

Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability band	Mean predicted	Observed frequency	Outcome observations
0–10%	5.7%	2.7%	37
10–20%	16.3%	15.3%	177
20–30%	24.8%	22.7%	603
30–40%	34.8%	35.7%	249
40–50%	45.0%	47.9%	190
50–60%	54.9%	56.1%	132
60–70%	64.8%	70.7%	58
70–80%	74.7%	76.0%	25
80–90%	83.6%	100.0%	12
90–100%	95.7%	100.0%	5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 03 Oct 2026 · 16:33 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

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Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.

Versions for this fixture

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