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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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492graded matches
0.6041Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0059Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.9%4.4%45
10–20%16.3%21.4%192
20–30%24.7%24.5%575
30–40%34.5%34.2%240
40–50%44.8%47.1%174
50–60%54.5%50.4%131
60–70%64.3%61.1%72
70–80%74.7%72.4%29
80–90%84.7%68.8%16
90–100%91.2%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 31 Oct 2026 · 07:20 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home44.07% Draw23.68% Away32.25%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home43.81% Draw23.83% Away32.35%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home43.81% Draw23.83% Away32.35%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home36.28% Draw24.80% Away38.91%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home34.13% Draw24.64% Away41.23%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home34.13% Draw24.64% Away41.23%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home34.13% Draw24.64% Away41.23%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home34.13% Draw24.64% Away41.23%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home34.13% Draw24.64% Away41.23%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home33.98% Draw24.58% Away41.44%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home34.31% Draw24.60% Away41.09%
    1–1 Missed
  12. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home34.29% Draw24.57% Away41.13%
    1–1 Missed
  13. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home48.68% Draw22.31% Away29.01%
    1–1 Missed
  14. Published National League · England
    Yeovil Town Worthing
    Home32.19% Draw33.63% Away34.18%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.