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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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481graded matches
0.5664Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9570Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 19 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%9.6%73
10–20%16.3%12.6%190
20–30%24.8%23.3%537
30–40%34.3%34.7%216
40–50%44.7%49.2%185
50–60%54.6%58.2%110
60–70%64.3%64.7%68
70–80%75.6%83.8%37
80–90%83.3%53.3%15
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (481)

Updated 22 Oct 2026 · 20:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home55.61% Draw20.74% Away23.65%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home55.60% Draw20.75% Away23.65%
    2–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home51.75% Draw21.72% Away26.53%
    2–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home49.85% Draw22.13% Away28.01%
    2–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home49.85% Draw22.13% Away28.01%
    2–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home49.85% Draw22.13% Away28.01%
    2–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home49.85% Draw22.13% Away28.01%
    2–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home49.84% Draw22.14% Away28.03%
    2–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home49.84% Draw22.14% Away28.03%
    2–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home50.12% Draw21.91% Away27.97%
    2–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home49.54% Draw22.10% Away28.36%
    2–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home49.54% Draw22.10% Away28.36%
    2–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home61.48% Draw21.53% Away16.99%
    2–1 Correct pick
  14. Published Copa de la División Profesional · Bolivia
    Real Tomayapo Real Oruro
    Home45.77% Draw33.47% Away20.76%
    2–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.