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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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482graded matches
0.5649Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9543Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 18 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.3%6.9%72
10–20%16.4%15.8%196
20–30%24.8%24.1%528
30–40%34.4%31.1%222
40–50%44.7%47.3%186
50–60%54.9%58.8%114
60–70%64.5%65.7%70
70–80%75.9%84.6%26
80–90%83.6%72.2%18
90–100%95.1%100.0%14

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (482)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 17:51 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Scafatese Team Altamura
    Home51.63% Draw26.60% Away21.77%
    2–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Scafatese Team Altamura
    Home52.01% Draw26.49% Away21.50%
    2–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Scafatese Team Altamura
    Home50.15% Draw26.77% Away23.08%
    2–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Scafatese Team Altamura
    Home53.30% Draw26.12% Away20.58%
    2–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Scafatese Team Altamura
    Home53.30% Draw26.12% Away20.58%
    2–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Scafatese Team Altamura
    Home53.30% Draw26.12% Away20.58%
    2–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Scafatese Team Altamura
    Home53.30% Draw26.12% Away20.58%
    2–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Scafatese Team Altamura
    Home53.30% Draw26.12% Away20.58%
    2–0 Correct pick
  9. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Scafatese Team Altamura
    Home72.60% Draw18.30% Away9.09%
    2–0 Correct pick
  10. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Scafatese Team Altamura
    Home56.47% Draw25.30% Away18.23%
    2–0 Correct pick
  11. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Scafatese Team Altamura
    Home42.64% Draw43.60% Away13.76%
    2–0 Missed
  12. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Scafatese Team Altamura
    Home42.64% Draw43.60% Away13.76%
    2–0 Missed
  13. Published Serie C - Girone C · Italy
    Scafatese Team Altamura
    Home40.75% Draw41.62% Away17.63%
    2–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.