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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5645Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9544Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.1%9.5%74
10–20%16.2%12.6%191
20–30%24.8%23.4%534
30–40%34.2%34.6%211
40–50%44.7%48.6%183
50–60%54.6%57.3%110
60–70%64.2%65.7%67
70–80%75.3%84.6%39
80–90%83.4%56.3%16
90–100%93.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 22 Oct 2026 · 22:31 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Girona II Osasuna II
    Home38.08% Draw29.25% Away32.67%
    3–2 Correct pick
  2. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Girona II Osasuna II
    Home35.08% Draw29.56% Away35.35%
    3–2 Missed
  3. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Girona II Osasuna II
    Home43.15% Draw28.49% Away28.35%
    3–2 Correct pick
  4. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Girona II Osasuna II
    Home50.81% Draw25.82% Away23.37%
    3–2 Correct pick
  5. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Girona II Osasuna II
    Home50.81% Draw25.82% Away23.37%
    3–2 Correct pick
  6. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Girona II Osasuna II
    Home50.81% Draw25.82% Away23.37%
    3–2 Correct pick
  7. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Girona II Osasuna II
    Home50.55% Draw25.83% Away23.63%
    3–2 Correct pick
  8. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Girona II Osasuna II
    Home49.28% Draw26.05% Away24.67%
    3–2 Correct pick
  9. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Girona II Osasuna II
    Home49.25% Draw26.16% Away24.59%
    3–2 Correct pick
  10. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Girona II Osasuna II
    Home41.79% Draw26.37% Away31.84%
    3–2 Correct pick
  11. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Girona II Osasuna II
    Home41.79% Draw26.37% Away31.84%
    3–2 Correct pick
  12. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Girona II Osasuna II
    Home41.48% Draw26.38% Away32.14%
    3–2 Correct pick
  13. Published Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
    Girona II Osasuna II
    Home32.66% Draw33.23% Away34.11%
    3–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.