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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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490graded matches
0.5556Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9389Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 10 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.5%4.9%82
10–20%15.8%15.6%237
20–30%24.8%25.3%509
30–40%34.6%32.5%209
40–50%44.7%44.0%166
50–60%54.3%55.8%95
60–70%64.1%62.6%91
70–80%74.6%78.3%46
80–90%84.6%90.0%20
90–100%94.9%100.0%15

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (490)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 20:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Odranci Šampion Celje
    Home56.94% Draw20.95% Away22.11%
    5–1 Correct pick
  2. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Odranci Šampion Celje
    Home59.93% Draw20.33% Away19.74%
    5–1 Correct pick
  3. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Odranci Šampion Celje
    Home59.93% Draw20.33% Away19.74%
    5–1 Correct pick
  4. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Odranci Šampion Celje
    Home59.93% Draw20.33% Away19.74%
    5–1 Correct pick
  5. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Odranci Šampion Celje
    Home59.99% Draw20.31% Away19.70%
    5–1 Correct pick
  6. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Odranci Šampion Celje
    Home59.99% Draw20.31% Away19.70%
    5–1 Correct pick
  7. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Odranci Šampion Celje
    Home68.50% Draw17.77% Away13.73%
    5–1 Correct pick
  8. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Odranci Šampion Celje
    Home66.17% Draw18.52% Away15.31%
    5–1 Correct pick
  9. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Odranci Šampion Celje
    Home67.98% Draw17.19% Away14.83%
    5–1 Correct pick
  10. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Odranci Šampion Celje
    Home65.02% Draw22.61% Away12.37%
    5–1 Correct pick
  11. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Odranci Šampion Celje
    Home65.02% Draw22.61% Away12.37%
    5–1 Correct pick
  12. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Odranci Šampion Celje
    Home65.02% Draw22.61% Away12.37%
    5–1 Correct pick
  13. Published 3. SNL - East · Slovenia
    Odranci Šampion Celje
    Home43.73% Draw33.23% Away23.04%
    5–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.