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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5964Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9999Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.5%10.0%20
10–20%16.3%11.6%181
20–30%25.3%27.3%622
30–40%34.8%32.7%251
40–50%44.7%40.8%191
50–60%54.6%57.3%131
60–70%63.9%71.9%64
70–80%74.0%77.8%27
80–90%84.4%50.0%4
90–100%--0

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 12 Oct 2026 · 06:52 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Stade Verviers Ostiches
    Home54.00% Draw24.45% Away21.55%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Stade Verviers Ostiches
    Home54.00% Draw24.45% Away21.55%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Stade Verviers Ostiches
    Home54.00% Draw24.45% Away21.55%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Stade Verviers Ostiches
    Home54.00% Draw24.45% Away21.55%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Stade Verviers Ostiches
    Home54.00% Draw24.45% Away21.55%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Stade Verviers Ostiches
    Home53.82% Draw24.40% Away21.78%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Stade Verviers Ostiches
    Home52.32% Draw24.71% Away22.98%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Stade Verviers Ostiches
    Home51.04% Draw26.12% Away22.85%
    1–1 Missed
  9. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Stade Verviers Ostiches
    Home49.09% Draw23.93% Away26.98%
    1–1 Missed
  10. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Stade Verviers Ostiches
    Home49.09% Draw23.93% Away26.98%
    1–1 Missed
  11. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Stade Verviers Ostiches
    Home49.09% Draw23.93% Away26.98%
    1–1 Missed
  12. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Stade Verviers Ostiches
    Home49.09% Draw23.93% Away26.98%
    1–1 Missed
  13. Published Second Amateur Division - ACFF · Belgium
    Stade Verviers Ostiches
    Home39.54% Draw29.40% Away31.06%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.