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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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497graded matches
0.5803Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9727Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 3 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%0.0%31
10–20%16.5%14.2%169
20–30%25.1%24.4%611
30–40%34.6%31.2%253
40–50%44.8%51.2%217
50–60%54.6%57.1%112
60–70%64.6%65.6%64
70–80%74.4%77.3%22
80–90%84.6%90.9%11
90–100%91.8%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (497)

Updated 10 Oct 2026 · 21:00 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Roosendaal Vvsb
    Home31.68% Draw24.01% Away44.31%
    3–1 Missed
  2. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Roosendaal Vvsb
    Home31.68% Draw24.01% Away44.32%
    3–1 Missed
  3. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Roosendaal Vvsb
    Home31.68% Draw24.01% Away44.32%
    3–1 Missed
  4. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Roosendaal Vvsb
    Home31.68% Draw24.01% Away44.32%
    3–1 Missed
  5. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Roosendaal Vvsb
    Home31.68% Draw24.01% Away44.32%
    3–1 Missed
  6. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Roosendaal Vvsb
    Home32.28% Draw24.05% Away43.66%
    3–1 Missed
  7. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Roosendaal Vvsb
    Home32.78% Draw24.09% Away43.13%
    3–1 Missed
  8. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Roosendaal Vvsb
    Home32.35% Draw25.35% Away42.29%
    3–1 Missed
  9. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Roosendaal Vvsb
    Home40.26% Draw23.82% Away35.92%
    3–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Roosendaal Vvsb
    Home40.26% Draw23.82% Away35.92%
    3–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Roosendaal Vvsb
    Home40.26% Draw23.82% Away35.92%
    3–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Roosendaal Vvsb
    Home40.26% Draw23.82% Away35.92%
    3–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Derde Divisie · Netherlands
    Roosendaal Vvsb
    Home37.63% Draw29.65% Away32.72%
    3–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.