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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5988Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9996Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.8%4.7%43
10–20%16.3%16.6%157
20–30%25.1%25.8%586
30–40%34.9%36.3%248
40–50%44.8%41.5%193
50–60%54.9%54.7%117
60–70%64.5%64.2%53
70–80%75.9%73.9%23
80–90%83.0%81.8%11
90–100%95.0%100.0%6

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (478) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 08:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home24.83% Draw23.06% Away52.11%
    4–1 Missed
  2. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home24.83% Draw23.06% Away52.11%
    4–1 Missed
  3. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home23.24% Draw22.52% Away54.24%
    4–1 Missed
  4. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home23.24% Draw22.53% Away54.23%
    4–1 Missed
  5. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home23.24% Draw22.53% Away54.23%
    4–1 Missed
  6. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home23.24% Draw22.53% Away54.23%
    4–1 Missed
  7. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home23.81% Draw22.68% Away53.51%
    4–1 Missed
  8. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home24.95% Draw22.93% Away52.12%
    4–1 Missed
  9. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home24.86% Draw23.63% Away51.51%
    4–1 Missed
  10. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home24.86% Draw23.63% Away51.51%
    4–1 Missed
  11. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home24.86% Draw23.63% Away51.51%
    4–1 Missed
  12. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home30.23% Draw20.86% Away48.91%
    4–1 Missed
  13. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home30.23% Draw20.86% Away48.91%
    4–1 Missed
  14. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home30.23% Draw20.86% Away48.91%
    4–1 Missed
  15. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home33.14% Draw20.85% Away46.00%
    4–1 Missed
  16. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Horní Ředice Teplice II
    Home26.06% Draw33.23% Away40.71%
    4–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.