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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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493graded matches
0.5482Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9321Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%6.4%47
10–20%15.9%12.6%214
20–30%24.8%21.9%553
30–40%34.9%32.8%241
40–50%44.8%51.6%182
50–60%54.6%59.3%108
60–70%64.3%75.0%80
70–80%74.7%83.3%36
80–90%84.2%78.6%14
90–100%95.4%100.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 07 Nov 2026 · 20:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home31.44% Draw23.53% Away45.03%
    0–1 Correct pick
  2. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home29.93% Draw23.04% Away47.02%
    0–1 Correct pick
  3. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home23.21% Draw21.75% Away55.04%
    0–1 Correct pick
  4. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home23.21% Draw21.76% Away55.03%
    0–1 Correct pick
  5. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home23.21% Draw21.76% Away55.03%
    0–1 Correct pick
  6. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home23.21% Draw21.76% Away55.03%
    0–1 Correct pick
  7. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home22.92% Draw21.56% Away55.52%
    0–1 Correct pick
  8. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home24.15% Draw21.86% Away54.00%
    0–1 Correct pick
  9. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home24.05% Draw21.66% Away54.29%
    0–1 Correct pick
  10. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home24.05% Draw21.66% Away54.29%
    0–1 Correct pick
  11. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home24.05% Draw21.66% Away54.29%
    0–1 Correct pick
  12. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home34.47% Draw20.92% Away44.61%
    0–1 Correct pick
  13. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home34.47% Draw20.92% Away44.61%
    0–1 Correct pick
  14. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home34.47% Draw20.92% Away44.61%
    0–1 Correct pick
  15. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home38.10% Draw20.91% Away40.99%
    0–1 Correct pick
  16. Published 3. liga - CFL B · Czech Republic
    Chrudim Pardubice II
    Home29.68% Draw33.33% Away36.99%
    0–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.