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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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482graded matches
0.5145Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.8795Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 18 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.5%0.9%111
10–20%15.7%11.4%201
20–30%24.8%25.7%510
30–40%34.3%30.0%190
40–50%44.9%43.4%173
50–60%54.7%63.5%104
60–70%64.6%67.2%61
70–80%74.4%87.2%47
80–90%85.0%96.6%29
90–100%93.7%95.0%20

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (473) · Earlier models (9)

Updated 02 Oct 2026 · 06:28 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    ACV Hoogeveen
    Home58.49% Draw18.69% Away22.82%
    2–1 Correct pick
  2. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    ACV Hoogeveen
    Home37.21% Draw21.58% Away41.21%
    2–1 Missed
  3. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    ACV Hoogeveen
    Home37.21% Draw21.58% Away41.21%
    2–1 Missed
  4. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    ACV Hoogeveen
    Home23.20% Draw28.23% Away48.57%
    2–1 Missed
  5. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    ACV Hoogeveen
    Home23.20% Draw28.23% Away48.57%
    2–1 Missed
  6. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    ACV Hoogeveen
    Home23.20% Draw28.23% Away48.57%
    2–1 Missed
  7. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    ACV Hoogeveen
    Home23.20% Draw28.23% Away48.57%
    2–1 Missed
  8. KNVB Beker · Netherlands
    ACV Hoogeveen
    Home23.20% Draw28.23% Away48.57%
    2–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.