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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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488graded matches
0.5586Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9472Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 12 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%7.2%10.0%30
10–20%16.5%12.2%205
20–30%25.0%22.8%558
30–40%34.2%33.6%253
40–50%44.5%48.6%177
50–60%54.7%54.7%128
60–70%64.1%76.3%76
70–80%74.4%96.6%29
80–90%85.6%71.4%7
90–100%91.6%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (488)

Updated 27 Oct 2026 · 10:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published NB II · Hungary
    Diosgyori VTK Gyirmot SE
    Home36.64% Draw29.11% Away34.25%
    2–0 Correct pick
  2. Published NB II · Hungary
    Diosgyori VTK Gyirmot SE
    Home36.64% Draw29.11% Away34.25%
    2–0 Correct pick
  3. Published NB II · Hungary
    Diosgyori VTK Gyirmot SE
    Home36.72% Draw29.07% Away34.21%
    2–0 Correct pick
  4. Published NB II · Hungary
    Diosgyori VTK Gyirmot SE
    Home28.00% Draw32.78% Away39.22%
    2–0 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.