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Frozen pre-match forecast · #92439

Hutnik Kraków VS Tychy 71

The original probability record, preserved separately from the final result.

Published before kickoff
02 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC
Match kickoff
03 Oct 2026 · 13:15 UTC
Record status
Graded

Before kickoff

Published probabilities

Home
33.96%
Draw
26.26%
Away
39.78%

These are the original displayed probabilities for this version. They are estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

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After the final whistle

Result & grading

0 – 290-minute result
Brier score
0.5469
Log loss
0.9218

Lower scores are better. Extra time and penalties do not change the 90-minute outcome.

About this record and its grading
Model version
v5
Captured at
02 Oct 2026 · 05:01 UTC
SHA-256
5c86e52b2430c4a0cbe6f130608d80b278a2813bb7295e66d4df39b13e548872

The checksum checks internal consistency; it is not independent proof against database tampering. Results use the current corrected fixture record. The archived probabilities remain unchanged.

Multiclass Brier sums squared errors across all three outcomes (0–2). Log loss uses natural logarithms and a 1e-15 floor. Rounded probabilities are normalized for grading.

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