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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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492graded matches
0.5544Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9375Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 8 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%8.7%92
10–20%15.8%13.3%256
20–30%24.6%25.2%496
30–40%34.8%34.5%194
40–50%44.7%45.8%153
50–60%54.8%53.4%103
60–70%64.4%65.6%90
70–80%74.3%76.9%52
80–90%85.5%79.3%29
90–100%94.3%100.0%11

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (492)

Updated 29 Oct 2026 · 03:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published II Liga - East · Poland
    Hutnik Kraków Tychy 71
    Home33.97% Draw26.26% Away39.77%
    0–2 Correct pick
  2. Published II Liga - East · Poland
    Hutnik Kraków Tychy 71
    Home33.96% Draw26.26% Away39.78%
    0–2 Correct pick
  3. Published II Liga - East · Poland
    Hutnik Kraków Tychy 71
    Home33.91% Draw26.25% Away39.84%
    0–2 Correct pick
  4. Published II Liga - East · Poland
    Hutnik Kraków Tychy 71
    Home31.48% Draw26.15% Away42.36%
    0–2 Correct pick
  5. Published II Liga - East · Poland
    Hutnik Kraków Tychy 71
    Home43.31% Draw26.90% Away29.78%
    0–2 Missed
  6. Published II Liga - East · Poland
    Hutnik Kraków Tychy 71
    Home43.32% Draw26.90% Away29.78%
    0–2 Missed
  7. Published II Liga - East · Poland
    Hutnik Kraków Tychy 71
    Home43.32% Draw26.89% Away29.79%
    0–2 Missed
  8. Published II Liga - East · Poland
    Hutnik Kraków Tychy 71
    Home43.31% Draw26.90% Away29.79%
    0–2 Missed
  9. Published II Liga - East · Poland
    Hutnik Kraków Tychy 71
    Home43.31% Draw26.90% Away29.79%
    0–2 Missed
  10. Published II Liga - East · Poland
    Hutnik Kraków Tychy 71
    Home43.33% Draw26.87% Away29.80%
    0–2 Missed
  11. Published II Liga - East · Poland
    Hutnik Kraków Tychy 71
    Home42.69% Draw26.93% Away30.38%
    0–2 Missed
  12. Published II Liga - East · Poland
    Hutnik Kraków Tychy 71
    Home40.90% Draw29.55% Away29.55%
    0–2 Missed
  13. Published II Liga - East · Poland
    Hutnik Kraków Tychy 71
    Home33.92% Draw34.90% Away31.18%
    0–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.