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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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493graded matches
0.5463Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9295Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%6.3%48
10–20%15.9%12.4%218
20–30%24.9%22.0%549
30–40%34.9%32.5%240
40–50%44.8%51.7%180
50–60%54.6%58.9%107
60–70%64.4%75.6%82
70–80%74.7%83.8%37
80–90%84.2%78.6%14
90–100%95.4%100.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 08 Nov 2026 · 13:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Serie A · Italy
    AC Milan Inter
    Home28.26% Draw24.16% Away47.58%
    3–1 Missed
  2. Published Serie A · Italy
    AC Milan Inter
    Home27.86% Draw24.10% Away48.04%
    3–1 Missed
  3. Published Serie A · Italy
    AC Milan Inter
    Home29.66% Draw24.32% Away46.02%
    3–1 Missed
  4. Published Serie A · Italy
    AC Milan Inter
    Home29.69% Draw24.32% Away45.98%
    3–1 Missed
  5. Published Serie A · Italy
    AC Milan Inter
    Home33.57% Draw25.70% Away40.74%
    3–1 Missed
  6. Published Serie A · Italy
    AC Milan Inter
    Home33.70% Draw25.73% Away40.57%
    3–1 Missed
  7. Published Serie A · Italy
    AC Milan Inter
    Home32.75% Draw25.79% Away41.46%
    3–1 Missed
  8. Published Serie A · Italy
    AC Milan Inter
    Home35.33% Draw25.97% Away38.71%
    3–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.