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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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479graded matches
0.5669Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9583Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 21 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.7%8.0%75
10–20%16.2%14.9%195
20–30%24.8%24.3%535
30–40%34.4%33.3%204
40–50%44.9%45.0%180
50–60%54.8%57.6%118
60–70%64.5%66.7%66
70–80%75.7%87.9%33
80–90%83.7%61.1%18
90–100%94.6%100.0%13

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (479)

Updated 22 Oct 2026 · 02:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1. Deild · Faroe Islands
    EB / Streymur II Hoyvík
    Home34.27% Draw22.65% Away43.07%
    Awaiting result
  2. Published 1. Deild · Faroe Islands
    EB / Streymur II Hoyvík
    Home34.27% Draw22.65% Away43.07%
    Awaiting result
  3. Published 1. Deild · Faroe Islands
    EB / Streymur II Hoyvík
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  4. Published 1. Deild · Faroe Islands
    EB / Streymur II Hoyvík
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  5. Published 1. Deild · Faroe Islands
    EB / Streymur II Hoyvík
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  6. Published 1. Deild · Faroe Islands
    EB / Streymur II Hoyvík
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.