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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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499graded matches
0.6075Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0136Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 1 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.9%4.9%41
10–20%16.0%16.6%211
20–30%25.1%29.5%560
30–40%34.5%29.6%260
40–50%44.4%41.0%188
50–60%55.0%53.2%109
60–70%64.3%57.0%79
70–80%74.5%77.8%36
80–90%84.8%90.9%11
90–100%92.3%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (499)

Updated 25 Oct 2026 · 16:00 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Ligue 2 · France
    Dunkerque Metz
    Home34.93% Draw25.23% Away39.84%
    1–1 Missed
  2. Published Ligue 2 · France
    Dunkerque Metz
    Home35.05% Draw25.33% Away39.61%
    1–1 Missed
  3. Published Ligue 2 · France
    Dunkerque Metz
    Home35.06% Draw25.33% Away39.62%
    1–1 Missed
  4. Published Ligue 2 · France
    Dunkerque Metz
    Home34.77% Draw25.11% Away40.12%
    1–1 Missed
  5. Published Ligue 2 · France
    Dunkerque Metz
    Home34.77% Draw25.11% Away40.12%
    1–1 Missed
  6. Published Ligue 2 · France
    Dunkerque Metz
    Home39.96% Draw25.90% Away34.15%
    1–1 Missed
  7. Published Ligue 2 · France
    Dunkerque Metz
    Home38.97% Draw26.26% Away34.77%
    1–1 Missed
  8. Published Ligue 2 · France
    Dunkerque Metz
    Home39.75% Draw26.31% Away33.94%
    1–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.