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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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493graded matches
0.5832Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9805Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 7 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.9%9.8%41
10–20%16.1%14.6%219
20–30%25.0%25.9%549
30–40%34.4%31.3%243
40–50%44.3%47.4%173
50–60%54.7%50.4%125
60–70%63.9%65.4%78
70–80%74.1%83.8%37
80–90%85.1%83.3%12
90–100%92.8%100.0%2

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (493)

Updated 26 Oct 2026 · 12:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published AFC Challenge League · World
    Goa Al Qadsia
    Home19.92% Draw23.41% Away56.67%
    1–2 Correct pick
  2. Published AFC Challenge League · World
    Goa Al Qadsia
    Home23.11% Draw25.71% Away51.19%
    1–2 Correct pick
  3. Published AFC Challenge League · World
    Goa Al Qadsia
    Home23.11% Draw25.71% Away51.19%
    1–2 Correct pick
  4. Published AFC Challenge League · World
    Goa Al Qadsia
    Home23.22% Draw25.69% Away51.08%
    1–2 Correct pick
  5. Published AFC Challenge League · World
    Goa Al Qadsia
    Home20.41% Draw24.84% Away54.75%
    1–2 Correct pick
  6. Published AFC Challenge League · World
    Goa Al Qadsia
    Home20.41% Draw24.85% Away54.75%
    1–2 Correct pick
  7. Published AFC Challenge League · World
    Goa Al Qadsia
    Home19.98% Draw24.75% Away55.27%
    1–2 Correct pick
  8. Published AFC Challenge League · World
    Goa Al Qadsia
    Home22.96% Draw25.76% Away51.28%
    1–2 Correct pick
  9. Published AFC Challenge League · World
    Goa Al Qadsia
    Home25.90% Draw26.29% Away47.81%
    1–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.