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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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495graded matches
0.5909Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9892Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 5 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%0.0%28
10–20%16.5%12.9%171
20–30%25.2%26.7%607
30–40%34.3%29.7%249
40–50%44.7%48.4%221
50–60%54.5%52.2%115
60–70%64.8%71.4%63
70–80%74.6%76.2%21
80–90%84.4%88.9%9
90–100%91.8%100.0%1

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (495)

Updated 11 Oct 2026 · 02:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Levski Sofia II FK Minyor Pernik
    Home25.28% Draw26.51% Away48.21%
    0–2 Correct pick
  2. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Levski Sofia II FK Minyor Pernik
    Home25.28% Draw26.51% Away48.21%
    0–2 Correct pick
  3. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Levski Sofia II FK Minyor Pernik
    Home25.28% Draw26.51% Away48.22%
    0–2 Correct pick
  4. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Levski Sofia II FK Minyor Pernik
    Home28.55% Draw27.57% Away43.89%
    0–2 Correct pick
  5. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Levski Sofia II FK Minyor Pernik
    Home28.55% Draw27.57% Away43.89%
    0–2 Correct pick
  6. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Levski Sofia II FK Minyor Pernik
    Home28.55% Draw27.57% Away43.89%
    0–2 Correct pick
  7. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Levski Sofia II FK Minyor Pernik
    Home28.49% Draw27.59% Away43.93%
    0–2 Correct pick
  8. Published Third League - Southwest · Bulgaria
    Levski Sofia II FK Minyor Pernik
    Home30.83% Draw27.36% Away41.81%
    0–2 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.