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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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486graded matches
0.5587Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9456Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 14 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.5%5.6%72
10–20%15.9%15.1%185
20–30%25.0%23.1%545
30–40%34.2%36.7%240
40–50%45.0%40.4%171
50–60%54.6%62.3%122
60–70%65.1%68.3%63
70–80%74.8%76.9%26
80–90%85.5%91.3%23
90–100%94.0%100.0%11

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (486)

Updated 07 Oct 2026 · 12:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 3. Division · Denmark
    Frem Næsby
    Home30.22% Draw23.59% Away46.19%
    Awaiting result
  2. Published 3. Division · Denmark
    Frem Næsby
    Home30.22% Draw23.59% Away46.19%
    Awaiting result
  3. Published 3. Division · Denmark
    Frem Næsby
    Home30.22% Draw23.59% Away46.19%
    Awaiting result
  4. Published 3. Division · Denmark
    Frem Næsby
    Home30.22% Draw23.60% Away46.18%
    Awaiting result
  5. Published 3. Division · Denmark
    Frem Næsby
    Home36.33% Draw23.57% Away40.10%
    Awaiting result

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.