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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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488graded matches
0.5489Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9322Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 12 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.8%5.0%40
10–20%16.2%11.1%190
20–30%24.7%21.5%563
30–40%34.9%34.6%263
40–50%44.8%51.5%167
50–60%54.7%57.8%128
60–70%64.3%82.6%69
70–80%74.8%82.8%29
80–90%84.2%75.0%12
90–100%94.3%100.0%3

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (488)

Updated 04 Nov 2026 · 08:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 1. Liga U19 · Czech Republic
    Pardubice U19 Baník Ostrava U19
    Home36.48% Draw21.26% Away42.25%
    0–4 Correct pick
  2. Published 1. Liga U19 · Czech Republic
    Pardubice U19 Baník Ostrava U19
    Home37.41% Draw21.03% Away41.56%
    0–4 Correct pick
  3. Published 1. Liga U19 · Czech Republic
    Pardubice U19 Baník Ostrava U19
    Home34.81% Draw20.40% Away44.79%
    0–4 Correct pick
  4. Published 1. Liga U19 · Czech Republic
    Pardubice U19 Baník Ostrava U19
    Home34.81% Draw20.40% Away44.79%
    0–4 Correct pick
  5. Published 1. Liga U19 · Czech Republic
    Pardubice U19 Baník Ostrava U19
    Home34.81% Draw20.40% Away44.79%
    0–4 Correct pick
  6. Published 1. Liga U19 · Czech Republic
    Pardubice U19 Baník Ostrava U19
    Home34.81% Draw20.40% Away44.79%
    0–4 Correct pick
  7. Published 1. Liga U19 · Czech Republic
    Pardubice U19 Baník Ostrava U19
    Home34.81% Draw20.40% Away44.79%
    0–4 Correct pick
  8. Published 1. Liga U19 · Czech Republic
    Pardubice U19 Baník Ostrava U19
    Home42.12% Draw21.41% Away36.48%
    0–4 Missed
  9. Published 1. Liga U19 · Czech Republic
    Pardubice U19 Baník Ostrava U19
    Home36.07% Draw22.39% Away41.53%
    0–4 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.