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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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491graded matches
0.5730Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9633Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.3%3.6%56
10–20%16.3%14.2%197
20–30%24.9%25.1%549
30–40%34.5%32.8%244
40–50%44.7%47.8%186
50–60%54.7%53.6%125
60–70%65.0%64.2%67
70–80%75.1%87.5%24
80–90%84.0%86.7%15
90–100%95.8%100.0%10

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 08:01 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home51.23% Draw20.12% Away28.64%
    4–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home51.23% Draw20.12% Away28.64%
    4–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home57.92% Draw20.31% Away21.77%
    4–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home57.92% Draw20.31% Away21.77%
    4–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home57.92% Draw20.31% Away21.77%
    4–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home57.77% Draw20.37% Away21.86%
    4–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home57.77% Draw20.37% Away21.86%
    4–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home57.77% Draw20.37% Away21.86%
    4–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home59.01% Draw19.43% Away21.56%
    4–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home59.01% Draw19.43% Away21.56%
    4–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home57.36% Draw19.74% Away22.90%
    4–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home54.53% Draw20.05% Away25.42%
    4–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home54.55% Draw20.04% Away25.42%
    4–1 Correct pick
  14. Published Professional Development League · England
    Bristol City U21 Charlton Athletic U21
    Home41.24% Draw42.20% Away16.56%
    4–1 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.