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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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481graded matches
0.5179Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.8852Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 19 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.5%1.0%103
10–20%15.5%11.7%188
20–30%24.9%24.1%518
30–40%34.2%31.2%205
40–50%44.9%46.1%180
50–60%54.4%64.4%101
60–70%64.7%66.7%57
70–80%74.4%86.7%45
80–90%84.7%96.2%26
90–100%93.4%95.0%20

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (471) · Earlier models (10)

Updated 01 Oct 2026 · 14:04 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. UEFA Nations League · World
    Romania Sweden
    Home31.28% Draw23.43% Away45.30%
    Awaiting result
  2. UEFA Nations League · World
    Romania Sweden
    Home31.28% Draw23.43% Away45.30%
    Awaiting result
  3. UEFA Nations League · World
    Romania Sweden
    Home31.30% Draw23.33% Away45.37%
    Awaiting result
  4. UEFA Nations League · World
    Romania Sweden
    Home38.35% Draw24.61% Away37.04%
    Awaiting result
  5. UEFA Nations League · World
    Romania Sweden
    Home38.35% Draw24.61% Away37.04%
    Awaiting result
  6. UEFA Nations League · World
    Romania Sweden
    Home42.24% Draw24.32% Away33.45%
    Awaiting result
  7. UEFA Nations League · World
    Romania Sweden
    Home42.24% Draw24.32% Away33.45%
    Awaiting result
  8. UEFA Nations League · World
    Romania Sweden
    Home42.22% Draw24.34% Away33.44%
    Awaiting result
  9. UEFA Nations League · World
    Romania Sweden
    Home43.16% Draw22.00% Away34.84%
    Awaiting result

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.