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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5751Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9701Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.5%10.4%67
10–20%15.9%11.1%217
20–30%24.7%25.3%538
30–40%34.5%35.0%234
40–50%44.8%48.8%172
50–60%54.4%51.3%113
60–70%64.8%66.7%75
70–80%74.7%71.4%49
80–90%84.2%88.9%18
90–100%94.4%80.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 16:50 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Home14.10% Draw24.55% Away61.36%
    2–0 Missed
  2. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Home11.82% Draw22.33% Away65.85%
    2–0 Missed
  3. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Home11.82% Draw22.33% Away65.85%
    2–0 Missed
  4. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Home36.03% Draw31.39% Away32.58%
    2–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Home36.03% Draw31.39% Away32.58%
    2–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  7. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  8. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  9. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  10. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  11. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  12. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  13. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  14. Published Super League 2 · Greece
    Pyrgos 1968 Panionios
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.