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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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478graded matches
0.5596Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9478Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 22 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.9%9.2%76
10–20%16.4%13.3%181
20–30%24.8%22.5%538
30–40%34.4%34.4%218
40–50%44.9%48.1%181
50–60%54.7%61.9%113
60–70%64.2%67.7%65
70–80%76.2%84.4%32
80–90%83.3%58.8%17
90–100%94.2%100.0%13

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (478)

Updated 22 Oct 2026 · 11:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home66.70% Draw19.75% Away13.55%
    2–0 Correct pick
  2. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home66.70% Draw19.75% Away13.55%
    2–0 Correct pick
  3. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home69.62% Draw18.85% Away11.53%
    2–0 Correct pick
  4. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home69.83% Draw18.76% Away11.41%
    2–0 Correct pick
  5. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home69.83% Draw18.76% Away11.41%
    2–0 Correct pick
  6. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home69.83% Draw18.76% Away11.41%
    2–0 Correct pick
  7. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home69.83% Draw18.76% Away11.41%
    2–0 Correct pick
  8. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home69.83% Draw18.76% Away11.41%
    2–0 Correct pick
  9. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home68.73% Draw18.89% Away12.38%
    2–0 Correct pick
  10. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home68.73% Draw18.89% Away12.38%
    2–0 Correct pick
  11. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home68.03% Draw19.20% Away12.78%
    2–0 Correct pick
  12. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home65.70% Draw19.99% Away14.31%
    2–0 Correct pick
  13. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home67.49% Draw18.62% Away13.89%
    2–0 Correct pick
  14. Published Liga 2 · Indonesia
    Deltras Persiba Balikpapan
    Home66.24% Draw23.53% Away10.23%
    2–0 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.