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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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491graded matches
0.5834Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9783Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 9 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.8%0.0%40
10–20%15.9%15.1%199
20–30%25.2%25.2%579
30–40%34.5%32.6%233
40–50%44.9%50.3%181
50–60%54.7%57.1%126
60–70%65.1%54.7%75
70–80%73.6%83.3%24
80–90%84.5%87.5%8
90–100%93.4%100.0%8

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (491)

Updated 19 Oct 2026 · 16:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published League Two · Scotland
    Elgin City Clyde
    Home43.71% Draw24.34% Away31.95%
    6–2 Correct pick
  2. Published League Two · Scotland
    Elgin City Clyde
    Home43.31% Draw24.43% Away32.26%
    6–2 Correct pick
  3. Published League Two · Scotland
    Elgin City Clyde
    Home37.67% Draw24.47% Away37.86%
    6–2 Missed
  4. Published League Two · Scotland
    Elgin City Clyde
    Home37.60% Draw24.50% Away37.90%
    6–2 Missed
  5. Published League Two · Scotland
    Elgin City Clyde
    Home37.60% Draw24.50% Away37.90%
    6–2 Missed
  6. Published League Two · Scotland
    Elgin City Clyde
    Home37.60% Draw24.50% Away37.90%
    6–2 Missed
  7. Published League Two · Scotland
    Elgin City Clyde
    Home49.20% Draw22.63% Away28.16%
    6–2 Correct pick
  8. Published League Two · Scotland
    Elgin City Clyde
    Home49.66% Draw22.38% Away27.96%
    6–2 Correct pick
  9. Published League Two · Scotland
    Elgin City Clyde
    Home49.66% Draw22.38% Away27.96%
    6–2 Correct pick
  10. Published League Two · Scotland
    Elgin City Clyde
    Home49.96% Draw22.30% Away27.74%
    6–2 Correct pick
  11. Published League Two · Scotland
    Elgin City Clyde
    Home48.91% Draw22.44% Away28.65%
    6–2 Correct pick
  12. Published League Two · Scotland
    Elgin City Clyde
    Home50.51% Draw20.78% Away28.71%
    6–2 Correct pick
  13. Published League Two · Scotland
    Elgin City Clyde
    Home30.76% Draw32.86% Away36.38%
    6–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.