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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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485graded matches
0.5626Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9496Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 15 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.1%4.6%65
10–20%16.2%15.0%200
20–30%24.8%23.6%529
30–40%34.4%33.2%235
40–50%44.9%48.4%184
50–60%54.6%56.4%117
60–70%64.9%65.7%70
70–80%75.4%84.0%25
80–90%83.9%83.3%18
90–100%95.8%100.0%12

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (485)

Updated 21 Oct 2026 · 11:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home56.66% Draw22.48% Away20.86%
    2–2 Missed
  2. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home55.67% Draw22.68% Away21.65%
    2–2 Missed
  3. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home55.67% Draw22.68% Away21.65%
    2–2 Missed
  4. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home60.28% Draw22.54% Away17.18%
    2–2 Missed
  5. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home60.28% Draw22.54% Away17.18%
    2–2 Missed
  6. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home60.28% Draw22.54% Away17.18%
    2–2 Missed
  7. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home60.28% Draw22.54% Away17.18%
    2–2 Missed
  8. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home58.60% Draw22.95% Away18.45%
    2–2 Missed
  9. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home56.97% Draw23.45% Away19.58%
    2–2 Missed
  10. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home56.97% Draw23.45% Away19.58%
    2–2 Missed
  11. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home57.01% Draw23.41% Away19.58%
    2–2 Missed
  12. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home55.28% Draw23.82% Away20.90%
    2–2 Missed
  13. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home53.45% Draw25.69% Away20.86%
    2–2 Missed
  14. Published 3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
    Uherský Brod Havířov
    Home42.59% Draw33.33% Away24.07%
    2–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.