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Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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Model
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496graded matches
0.6017Multiclass Brier (0–2)
1.0038Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.7%6.5%46
10–20%16.3%14.2%176
20–30%25.0%27.0%582
30–40%34.6%35.5%262
40–50%44.5%42.3%194
50–60%54.7%52.5%120
60–70%64.6%60.9%64
70–80%74.9%75.9%29
80–90%83.3%70.0%10
90–100%93.8%100.0%5

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (495) · Earlier models (1)

Updated 24 Oct 2026 · 18:10 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Home25.88% Draw23.41% Away50.71%
    0–1 Correct pick
  2. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Home30.37% Draw24.01% Away45.63%
    0–1 Correct pick
  3. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Home61.99% Draw19.80% Away18.21%
    0–1 Missed
  4. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Home62.03% Draw19.79% Away18.18%
    0–1 Missed
  5. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Home68.77% Draw17.71% Away13.53%
    0–1 Missed
  6. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  7. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  8. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  9. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  10. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  11. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  12. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  13. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  14. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  15. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification
  16. Published IFA Shield · India
    East Bengal II Minerva Punjab
    Needs verification
    Result pending verification

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.