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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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496graded matches
0.5599Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9492Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 4 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%6.6%7.5%67
10–20%15.9%11.0%227
20–30%24.5%25.6%542
30–40%34.5%33.2%214
40–50%44.7%46.9%160
50–60%54.6%52.3%128
60–70%64.6%73.7%76
70–80%74.9%74.5%51
80–90%84.1%89.5%19
90–100%94.5%75.0%4

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (496)

Updated 23 Oct 2026 · 23:30 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Czech Republic U17
    Home41.41% Draw25.13% Away33.46%
    4–1 Correct pick
  2. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Czech Republic U17
    Home41.15% Draw25.30% Away33.56%
    4–1 Correct pick
  3. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Czech Republic U17
    Home40.54% Draw25.35% Away34.11%
    4–1 Correct pick
  4. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Czech Republic U17
    Home40.54% Draw25.35% Away34.11%
    4–1 Correct pick
  5. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Czech Republic U17
    Home38.31% Draw25.18% Away36.52%
    4–1 Correct pick
  6. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Czech Republic U17
    Home38.31% Draw25.18% Away36.52%
    4–1 Correct pick
  7. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Czech Republic U17
    Home38.19% Draw25.41% Away36.40%
    4–1 Correct pick
  8. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Czech Republic U17
    Home53.66% Draw21.64% Away24.70%
    4–1 Correct pick
  9. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Czech Republic U17
    Home53.66% Draw21.64% Away24.70%
    4–1 Correct pick
  10. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Czech Republic U17
    Home51.48% Draw21.66% Away26.86%
    4–1 Correct pick
  11. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Czech Republic U17
    Home51.48% Draw21.66% Away26.86%
    4–1 Correct pick
  12. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Czech Republic U17
    Home43.18% Draw28.93% Away27.90%
    4–1 Correct pick
  13. Published Friendlies · World
    Poland U17 Czech Republic U17
    Home43.18% Draw28.93% Away27.90%
    4–1 Correct pick

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.