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← Predictions

Recorded before kickoff

The forecast. The timestamp. The result.

Explore retained forecast versions and see how their probabilities performed after the final whistle.

Browse forecasts ↓ See the full track record →

Original probabilities stay unchanged. Results are graded separately. The archive starts when retention was enabled; earlier forecasts are not reconstructed.

Public calibration - frozen forecasts

Latest 500 completed fixtures with retained forecasts; one latest retained pre-match version per fixture. Includes all model versions shown below. No reconstructed forecasts enter this report.

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488graded matches
0.5635Multiclass Brier (0–2)
0.9490Log loss

500 considered · 0 awaiting results · 12 excluded: provenance or result could not be verified

Show the calibration table
Calibration across home, draw and away outcomes
Probability bandMean predictedObserved frequencyOutcome observations
0–10%5.7%3.8%78
10–20%16.0%16.1%223
20–30%24.9%25.7%518
30–40%34.5%32.1%218
40–50%44.5%43.9%164
50–60%54.1%56.2%105
60–70%64.2%65.1%83
70–80%74.9%73.3%45
80–90%85.2%87.5%16
90–100%94.6%100.0%14

Each match contributes three outcome observations; these are correlated, not three independent matches. Bands include the lower bound and exclude the upper bound, except 100%. Sparse bins are unstable. Lower Brier and log loss are better.

Model versions: v5 (488)

Updated 30 Oct 2026 · 10:40 America/New_York · Forecasts stay unchanged. Grading uses current corrected regulation results; extra time and penalties are excluded. Rounded probability vectors are normalized for scoring; log loss uses natural logs with a 1e-15 floor.

The evidence

Versions for this fixture

View all forecasts →
  1. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home51.16% Draw23.86% Away24.98%
    4–2 Correct pick
  2. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home63.90% Draw20.24% Away15.86%
    4–2 Correct pick
  3. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home63.90% Draw20.24% Away15.86%
    4–2 Correct pick
  4. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home64.71% Draw19.87% Away15.42%
    4–2 Correct pick
  5. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home65.14% Draw19.69% Away15.17%
    4–2 Correct pick
  6. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home65.14% Draw19.69% Away15.17%
    4–2 Correct pick
  7. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home65.11% Draw19.70% Away15.19%
    4–2 Correct pick
  8. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home65.12% Draw19.70% Away15.18%
    4–2 Correct pick
  9. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home65.11% Draw19.71% Away15.18%
    4–2 Correct pick
  10. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home65.11% Draw19.71% Away15.18%
    4–2 Correct pick
  11. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home64.99% Draw19.72% Away15.29%
    4–2 Correct pick
  12. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home64.99% Draw19.72% Away15.29%
    4–2 Correct pick
  13. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home62.53% Draw21.87% Away15.60%
    4–2 Correct pick
  14. Published QSL Cup · Qatar
    Al-Gharafa Al Mesaimeer
    Home25.20% Draw28.53% Away46.27%
    4–2 Missed

Times shown in America/New_York. The highlighted probability is the published pick; the underlined outcome is what happened after 90 minutes.